News 0 comments on UN reportedly proposes 4-point plan to Russia to revive grain deal

UN reportedly proposes 4-point plan to Russia to revive grain deal

UN Secretary General Antonio Guterres proposed a four-point plan to revive the Black Sea grain deal, German daily Bild reported on Friday.

Guterres detailed his plan in a letter he sent to Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov on Aug. 28, the daily said, citing diplomatic sources.

The plan foresees granting SWIFT access to a subsidiary of the Russian Agricultural Bank (RAB) and allowing Russian ships to dock at European ports if they only transport food or fertilizer products, according to the report.

Guterres also suggested that the UN can support an insurance facility for Russian cargo ships and offered assistance for the return of the frozen assets of the Russian fertilizer producers, the daily reported.

“The United Nations will work with the relevant national authorities and the EU authorities on the basis of these,” he reportedly said.

In return, Guterres asked Russia to restore to the Black Sea grain deal, which was signed by Kyiv and Moscow last year.

Russia had refused to extend the grain deal in July, complaining that the West has not met its obligations, and that there were still restrictions on its own food and fertilizer exports. Moscow particularly criticized the restrictions on payments, logistics and insurance.

Earlier on Wednesday, the Russian Foreign Ministry confirmed that there were some new proposals from the UN to restore the grain deal, but underlined that these proposals were not sufficient enough to normalize the agricultural exports.

News 0 comments on G-20 summit begins in New Delhi

G-20 summit begins in New Delhi

The 18th G-20 Leaders’ Summit began on Saturday in India’s capital New Delhi under the theme, “One Earth, One Family, One Future.”

Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi welcomed world leaders, including Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan, as they arrived at the venue for the first day of the summit. The leaders posed for welcome photographs with the Indian premier.

The two-day summit is being held at the newly inaugurated Pragati Maidan conference center at the Bharat Mandapam culture corridor, where a statue of Nataraja, the Hindu God of dance, as an important symbol of cosmic energy, creativity and power — is located.

Russian President Vladimir Putin and Chinese President Xi Jinping have skipped the meeting, which hopes to make progress on trade, climate and other global problems.

The summit began with the “One Earth” session during which Modi invited the African Union, a bloc of 55 countries, as a permanent member of the G-20. “This will strengthen the G-20 and also strengthen the voice of the Global South,” Modi said.

The Indian leader called on the world to change the “global trust deficit” into “confidence in each other.”

“This is a time when age-old challenges are demanding new solutions … we must fulfil each of our responsibilities and move forward. After the COVID-19 pandemic, the world is now going through a new major crisis, that is a lack of trust,” he said.

“War has further deepened this trust deficit. If we can defeat COVID, we can also achieve victory over this trust deficit crisis.”

Modi addressed the delegates with a nameplate that listed his country as Bharat, an ancient Sanskrit name that also figured on the official invitation for the delegates of the Group of 20. Currently, the country’s Constitution has both India and Bharat, making them the official names of the world’s most populous country.

Later, the leaders of the wealthiest economies will attend the second session, “One Family.”

Indian President Droupadi Murmu, meanwhile, will be hosting a G-20 dinner for the delegates.

Leaders to adopt declaration

On Sunday, leaders will lay wreaths at Mahatma Gandhi’s tomb in New Delhi before attending a tree-planting ceremony.

After the third session, “One Future,” the leaders are expected to adopt the New Delhi Leaders’ Declaration, a commitment to priorities discussed and agreed upon during the respective ministerial and working group meetings.

The G-20 currently comprises 19 countries and the EU, with the members representing around 85% of global GDP, and more than 75% of global trade.

The intergovernmental forum plays an important role in shaping and strengthening global architecture and governance on all major international economic issues.

The member states are Argentina, Australia, Brazil, Canada, China, France, Germany, India, Indonesia, Italy, Japan, South Korea, Mexico, Russia, Saudi Arabia, South Africa, Türkiye, the UK and the US.

Besides the members, term president India also invited the leaders of Bangladesh, the Netherlands, Nigeria, Egypt, Mauritius, Oman, Singapore, Spain and the United Arab Emirates.

In addition to international organizations such as the UN, International Monetary Fund and World Bank, India also invited members of the International Solar Alliance, the Coalition for Disaster Resilient Infrastructure and the Asian Development Bank as guests.

The G-20 presidency will be taken over by Brazil in 2024 and South Africa in 2025.

News 0 comments on Sudan’s army to reopen border crossings with Eritrea

Sudan’s army to reopen border crossings with Eritrea

Sudan’s army chief Gen. Abdel Fattah al-Burhan on Saturday ordered the reopening of his country’s border crossings with Eritrea, according to an official statement, Anadolu reports.

The Sudanese Sovereignty Council said that al-Burhan made the decision during his visit to Sudan’s eastern states of Red Sea and Kasala.

The statement added that the decision to reopen the border crossings is to facilitate the people’s movement and to allow commercial activities and exchange of goods between the two countries.

Meanwhile, al-Burhan also said that the Sudanese army and people will continue the fight against the paramilitary Rapid Support Forces (RSF) till their defeat.

Sudan has been ravaged by fighting between the army and the RSF since April in a conflict that killed more than 3,000 civilians and injured thousands, according to local medics.

Several cease-fire agreements brokered by Saudi and US mediators between the warring rivals failed to end violence in the country.

According to UN estimates, nearly 4.8 million people have been displaced by the current conflict in Sudan.

News 0 comments on The Gulf Is Playing Hardball With European Soccer

The Gulf Is Playing Hardball With European Soccer

As superstars Cristiano Ronaldo, Karim Benzema, and Neymar move from Europe to Saudi Arabia; United Arab Emirates-owned club Manchester City brings home its third English Premier League title in a row; and Qatar-owned Paris Saint-Germain wins the French championship for the eighth time in 10 years, European soccer appears to be in the clutches of oil-rich Arab countries like never before.

The Gulf states have shown a growing interest in Europe’s most popular sport for more than a decade, but critics say their petrodollars are stifling competition and making tournaments less entertaining, and now they are pushing back. Last month, Spain’s top professional football division, La Liga, filed a complaint with the European Commission against Paris Saint-Germain (PSG), arguing that its Qatari funding breaches recently approved EU rules limiting subsidies from outside the bloc.

“I hope there will be an awakening on the real danger that these sovereign funds represent for competition and for the landscape of European soccer,” said Pierre Rondeau, a sports economics expert at the Sports Management School in Paris.

State-run Qatar Investment Authority purchased PSG in 2011. Three years earlier, Britain’s Manchester City had been bought by a group of investors led by Sheikh Mansour bin Zayed al-Nahyan, a member of the United Arab Emirates’ royal family. And way down in the Premier League rankings, Saudi Arabia’s Public Investment Fund took control of Newcastle United last year.

The takeovers have usually come with lavish spending sprees that have enriched the teams’ rosters with some of the best talent around. In the two years that followed the ownership change, Manchester City reportedly spent a whopping $380 billion in transfers. More recently, Qatar’s state coffers allowed PSG to put together one of the most star-studded squads in the history of the game, including strikers Lionel Messi, Neymar, and Kylian Mbappé—although the team has been spectacularly disappointing on the international stage, reaching (and losing) only one Champions League final since the Qatari takeover

Wealthy foreign investors are hardly new in European soccer. Before the Emirati royal took over, Manchester City had been the property of Thai tycoon and former Prime Minister Thaksin Shinawatra. Chelsea, another top British team (despite an appalling 12th-place final standing in the Premier League last season and a lukewarm start in the current one), was long owned by controversial Russian oligarch Roman Abramovich. But for many, the growing influence of state actors with a seemingly unlimited supply of petrodollars is a different, more problematic trend. In a sign of the newcomers’ spending potential, the Saudi Public Investment Fund’s leisure and entertainment assets amount to just 1.6 percent of the total, according to its 2021 report.

The new Gulf owners’ financial might has often allowed them to have it their way, despite fierce opposition from other teams and regardless of the players’ previous engagements. Neymar was snatched from Barcelona, against the will of the Spanish club, when PSG’s owners agreed to pay a record-breaking release clause of 222 million euros (about $242 million), PSG then went on to buy Messi after Barcelona could not afford to renew the Argentine superstar’s contract, and fended off Real Madrid’s overtures to its own striker, Mbappé, with a reported signing-on fee of more than $100 million.

The money coming into PSG from outside the EU “is having an effect on the European market—it is driving up the price of getting talent,” said Stefan Szymanski, a professor of sport management at the University of Michigan and the co-author of Soccernomics.

This can lead to a situation where a handful of top teams with big money hoard all the best players, leaving everyone else with the leftovers. The French championship Ligue 1 has gone from a hard-fought, open-ended contest to one that star-studded PSG is almost certain to win every year.

“To be entertaining, sports require a certain level of rivalry on an equal footing, and that’s largely disappeared from French soccer,” said Jean-Pascal Gayant, an economist with a focus on sports at the University of Rennes. The benefits of the Qatari cash infusion have largely failed to trickle down to the other French clubs as some had hoped, he said. Since the takeover, the overall European ranking of the best French teams has hardly improved, and French first division sides other than PSG have seen their revenues grow by less than 30 percent, against an almost 80 percent rise enjoyed by their Spanish and English counterparts.

Across the channel, the sudden influx of cash from the Gulf has had far-reaching consequences within the English league, too. At the time of the Emirati takeover, Manchester City hadn’t won the top English title in 40 years. It has since won it seven times, more than any other team in the same period. Newcastle’s new Saudi owners, after shopping for players and a new manager, took the club from the 12th position in 2021 to fourth place this year, which for Newcastle is a good finish.

The emblem of FIFA World Cup Qatar 2022 is unveiled.
The emblem of FIFA World Cup Qatar 2022 is unveiled.

The Geopolitics of the World Cup

Where “the world’s game” and world politics intersect.

Bia Zaneratto of Brazil celebrates with teammate Ary Borges after scoring her team’s third goal during a match between Brazil and Panama during the FIFA Women’s World Cup in Adelaide, Australia, on July 24.
Bia Zaneratto of Brazil celebrates with teammate Ary Borges after scoring her team’s third goal during a match between Brazil and Panama during the FIFA Women’s World Cup in Adelaide, Australia, on July 24.

A High-Dollar, Highly Outspoken Women’s World Cup

Latin American players push for free expression and equal pay at this year’s tournament.

The Gulf’s splurge on European soccer is part of a wider operation encompassing a variety of sports, including golf, wrestling, and motor-racing, that aims to diversify those countries’ oil-dominated economies while boosting their international standing and sportswashing their reputation for human rights abuses. Saudi Arabia, for instance, launched a new pro golf tour that started as a rival for the established U.S. tour and ended up devouring it. The Formula One race season, which for decades lapped iconic tracks like Silverstone and Monaco, now includes four races on new-built circuits in the Persian Gulf in an ever-expanding calendar, with Gulf money sponsoring many races it can’t physically host.

But Gulf monarchies aren’t only buying their way into European soccer: They are also seeking to raise their profile as soccer nations themselves. Qatar hosted the 2022 Men’s World Cup, and the Saudis will host the Club World Cup later this year.

Moreover, Saudi Arabia, whose international image is still recovering from the brutal murder of journalist Jamal Khashoggi in 2018, has also made it a priority to attract as many star players as possible from the Old Continent. Ronaldo, who signed for Al Nassr in January, is receiving a reported salary of $217 million per year—the highest in the history of the sport. The goal is to dramatically improve the quality of the Saudi Pro League, the country’s top division, attracting investments and fans—amid reports that Riyadh is hoping that the Champions League, Europe’s top club competition, could make the unprecedented move of opening up to Saudi teams.

Aging soccer superstars have long been tempted to conclude their careers earning big bucks in less demanding tournaments outside Europe or South America. Pelé moved to the nascent North American Soccer League in the late 1970s. In the early 1990s, legends like England’s Gary Lineker and Brazil’s Zico moved to Japan for their last few seasons. Many others have since picked China, Australia, or the United States—including David Beckham and most recently, 36-year-old Messi, who signed with Florida club Inter Miami earlier this summer and has already helped it win its first trophy.

More than Europe, many believe that it’s those countries, and the United States’ Major Soccer League in particular (which labors under a salary cap for players), who should worry about Saudi Arabia’s recent drive to import talent.

“The U.S. was seen by some as a semi-retirement home for players,” said Kieran Maguire, a soccer finance expert at the University of Liverpool and co-host of The Price of Football podcast. “Now, to players who might consider going to the U.S., their agents will be saying that their first choice should be the Saudi Pro League. There are no cost control measures operating there, and we’ve seen the level of remuneration that is available.”

Worryingly for Europe, though, Saudi Arabia’s appetite doesn’t stop at players in their sunset years. In July, 26-year-old French striker Allan Saint-Maximin was transferred from Newcastle to Saudi side Al-Ahli. Both teams are controlled by the Saudi Public Investment Fund, and the move has ruffled feathers among other English clubs, who worry that the transfer fee has been inflated and amounts to an irregular injection of capital to Newcastle.

With national leagues upended, transfer prices through the roof, and top players snatched from the continent, the question is whether European soccer can (or even wants to) do anything beyond the occasional grumble.

La Liga has long sought to limit the scope of the Gulf’s spending spree, with its president, Javier Tebas, urging European soccer’s governing body (UEFA) to intervene against state aid that is “irreparably harming the football industry”—an animosity that many attribute to the PSG’s penchant for luring star players away from Spain’s pitches. The new complaint with the European Commission is “textbook Tebas,” Maguire said.

UEFA, for its part, has slapped sanctions on Arab-owned teams on multiple occasions in recent years for breaches of its financial fair play rules—which, in theory, forbid clubs from spending more than their revenues allow. But with many European clubs indebted and strapped for cash, in reality, the governing body “has only feebly protested against this situation of imbalance, given the extra resources that have been pumped into European soccer,” said Gayant, the University of Rennes economist.

While the strongest contenders to national and international titles have been negatively impacted by the massive increase of their Gulf-owned rivals’ financial means, the teams with lower ambitions benefit from the system too, Szymanski said: “PSG, [Manchester] City, and Newcastle have injected a lot of money into the transfer market, and that is a financial benefit to pretty much everybody down the chain.” Medium-sized clubs, in particular, get to sell their star players at head-spinning prices, “which helps them survive financially,” he said.

In this context, despite the complaints coming from some quarters, a wider backlash against the outsized role of Gulf countries in European soccer seems unlikely. And after all, while the financial might of oil-rich sovereign funds from the Middle East may be unparalleled, public intervention in the realm of soccer is anything but new in Europe. French stadiums were renovated on the taxpayers’ dime ahead of the 2016 European Cup. Spanish clubs have been repeatedly bailed out by governments in recent decades, and in 2021, Barcelona and Real Madrid were forced by the EU’s highest court to pay back millions of euros in illegal state aid.

“There has been a history of state subsidies and government support—indirect and sometimes direct—for football teams, and therefore to say that this particular form of distortion [caused by the Gulf states] is unacceptable might turn out to be problematic,” Szymanski said. “It’s a pretty distorted market to begin with.”

Foreign Policy
opinion 0 comments on What’s next after Tunisia’s Saied sacked his PM?

What’s next after Tunisia’s Saied sacked his PM?

Tunisian President Kais Saied fired his prime minister Najla Bouden without explanation late Tuesday. Why did he do this, and what are the implications for the debt-ridden North African country?
Why was Najla Bouden sacked?

Media reports say Saied was unhappy with her handling of the shortage of flour, and therefore of bread in government-subsidised bakeries.

“This administration has a short fuse when it comes to problems, and the important thing for the president is that nothing can be seen to be his fault,” essayist Hatem Nafti told AFP.

He said Saied’s regime “looks for scapegoats — judges, prisoners of conscience and most recently sub-Saharan migrants”.

Economists attribute the lack of state-subsidised bread to shortages of grain. Suppliers no longer extend credit to Tunisia, where debt is around 80 percent of gross domestic product.

Since the 1970s, the state has supplied staples such as flour, cooking oil, sugar, milk and fuel, to the marketplace at subsidised prices.

Nafti said Bouden, whom Saied himself appointed in October 2021 as the country’s first woman premier, had become “highly unpopular within the president’s entourage”.

Even among opposition circles she was seen simply as a “reassuring showcase for the West”, he said.

Faced with the bread shortage and a deteriorating economy, “curiously, it is the government and opposition that bear the brunt of popular anger,” rather than the regime itself in which the president holds all the power, according to political scientist Youssef Cherif of Columbia Global Centers in Tunis.

Appointing a new prime minister may “show that the president listens to the word on the street”, he said.

Saied won a democratic election in October 2019, but granted himself sweeping powers on July 25, 2021, and now governs by decree. Since his power grab, he has dismissed half a dozen ministers.

What does Saied plan to do?

Some analysts believe that Saied may be making political preparations in advance of the presidential election due in autumn next year.

But the new prime minister, Ahmed Hachani, a lawyer who worked at the central bank, “is not a politician at all. He’s an old comrade of the president from the law faculty” at the University of Tunis, Nafti said.

The premier’s name and background “do not matter. He is only there to implement the president’s wishes”, he added.

According to political scientist Slaheddine Jourchi, “Kais Saied does not believe in the independence of government or its ministers”.

Cherif said it seems probable that “the main ministerial portfolios will not be affected, and that changes will be limited to those that have had problems in recent months”.

Economy Minister Samir Saied may find himself targeted, as he has fronted talks with the International Monetary Fund on a $1.9-billion bailout the president has repeatedly rejected as “foreign diktats that will lead to more poverty”.

“That would be logical, for with Kais Saied, they are on two irreconcilable lines,” said Nafti.

And the international consequences?

Analysts say it is hard to imagine that the IMF bailout talks will continue, given Saied’s opposition to them and his calls for “a new global financial institution”.

Saied rejects lifting subsidies and restructuring 100 state-owned firms that are often heavily indebted, two measures proposed by the Bouden government in exchange for the IMF loan.

The president says he will seek funding elsewhere. “This is part of his Third World and populist thinking, and helps to bolster his popularity,” said Cherif.

Some funding may be possible with aid from Europe and some Arab countries such as Saudi Arabia, which recently announced financial aid of $500 million, including a grant of $100 million.

In mid-July, the European Union and Tunisia agreed on a “comprehensive partnership” providing for the payment of 255 million euros ($280 million) this year, including 150 million as a direct contribution to the budget.

In the future, Brussels may also provide a long-term loan of around 900 million euros, but this would be conditional on political reform and respect for human rights, according to EU rules for such aid.

“What counts most for Europe is that Kais Saied continue to guard Tunisia’s frontiers and keep the migrants from sub-Saharan Africa” from trying to reach Europe, said Nafti.

Such international aid, as well as revenue from tourism and money sent home by Tunisians abroad, “will provide a respite for the public purse until winter”, said Cherif.

But “more funds will be necessary later”, and the risk of “default will continue to be an option”, he added.

News, opinion 0 comments on Far-Right Parties Are Rising to Power Around Europe. Is Spain Next? .. By Jason Horowitz

Far-Right Parties Are Rising to Power Around Europe. Is Spain Next? .. By Jason Horowitz

As Spain prepares for elections, some liberal European politicians fear that the hard-right Vox party could become the first right-wing party since the Franco era to enter Spain’s national government.

The president of the hard-right party Vox, Santiago Abascal, giving a speech at a recent rally in Barcelona, Spain.Credit…Samuel Aranda for The New York Times
A man standing at a lectern with people standing behind barriers nearby.

 

Reporting from Elche, Madrid and Valencia, Spain

Last month, after Spain’s conservative and hard-right parties crushed the left in local elections, the winners in Elche, a small southeastern town known for an ancient sculpture and shoe exports, signed an agreement with consequences for the future of Spain — and the rest of Europe.

The candidate from the conservative Popular Party had a chance to govern, but he needed the hard-right Vox party, which, in return for its support during council votes, received the deputy mayor position and a new administrative body to defend the traditional family. They inked their deal under the cross of the local church.

“This coalition model could be a good model for the whole of Spain,” said Pablo Ruz Villanueva, Elche’s new mayor, referring to upcoming national elections on July 23, which most polls suggest will oust the liberal prime minister, Pedro Sánchez, of the Spanish Socialist Workers’ Party. The new deputy mayor from Vox, Aurora Rodil Martínez, went further: “My party will do everything that’s necessary to make that happen.”

If Ms. Rodil’s wish comes true, with Vox joining a coalition with more moderate conservatives, it would become the first right-wing party since the dictatorship of Francisco Franco to enter the national government.

The rise of Vox is part of an increasing trend of hard-right parties surging in popularity and, in some cases, gaining power by entering governments as junior partners.

Image

People walking in a courtyard in a Spanish town.
People walking through the old part of Elche, Spain.Credit…Samuel Aranda for The New York Times
People walking in a courtyard in a Spanish town.

 

The parties have differences but generally fear the economic ramifications of globalization, and say that their countries will lose their national identities to migration, often from non-Christian or nonwhite-majority countries, but also to an empowered European Union that they believe looks after only the elites. Their steady advances have added urgency to a now pressing debate among liberals over how to outflank a suddenly more influential right.

Some argue that the hard right needs to be marginalized, as was the case for more than a half-century after World War II. Others fear that the hard right has grown too large to be ignored and that the only choice is to bring them into governing in the hopes of normalizing them.

In Sweden, the government now depends on the parliamentary votes of a party with neo-Nazi roots, and has given it some sway in policymaking. In Finland, where the right has ascended into the governing coalition, the nationalist Finns party has risked destabilizing it, with a key minister from that far-right party resigning last month after it emerged that he had made “Heil Hitler” jokes.

On Friday, the Dutch government led by Mark Rutte, a conservative and the Netherlands’ longest serving prime minister, collapsed because more centrist parties in his coalition considered his efforts to curb migration too harsh. Mr. Rutte has had to guard his right flank against surging populists and a longstanding hard-right party.

In Italy, the far right has taken power on its own. But so far, Prime Minister Giorgia Meloni, politically reared in parties born from the ashes of Fascism and a close ally of Spain’s Vox, has governed more moderately than many in Europe expected — bolstering some analysts’ argument that the reality of governing can be a moderating force.

Elsewhere, hard-right parties are breaking through in countries where they had recently seemed contained.

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A man in a blue shirt and khakis sits on the top of a desk as a woman in a white shirt and pants stands next to him.
Elche’s new mayor, Pablo Ruz Villanueva, left, and deputy mayor, Aurora Rodil Martínez, in their office last month in Elche, Spain.Credit…Samuel Aranda for The New York Times
A man in a blue shirt and khakis sits on the top of a desk as a woman in a white shirt and pants stands next to him.

 

In France, the once fringe party of the far-right leader Marine Le Pen has become an established force as entrenched anger against President Emmanuel Macron has newly exploded over issues like pension changes and the integration and policing of the country’s minority communities. He is not running again and the election is years away, but liberals across Europe shuddered when she passed him in some recent polls.

And in Germany, where the right has long been taboo, economic uncertainty and a new surge in arrivals by asylum seekers has helped resurrect the far-right Alternative for Germany party. It is now the leading party in the formerly Communist eastern states, according to polls, and is even gaining popularity in the wealthier and more liberal west.

While the parties in different countries do not have identical proposals, they generally want to close the doors to and cut benefits off for migrants; hit the pause, or reverse, button when it comes to L.G.B.T.Q. rights; and stake out more protectionist trade policies. Some are suspicious of NATO and dubious about climate change and sending arms to Ukraine.

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People waving flags near a banner showing the face of Giorgia Meloni.
Supporters of the hard-right Italian politician Giorgia Meloni in Rome before the general elections that she won in 2022.Credit…Gianni Cipriano for The New York Times
People waving flags near a banner showing the face of Giorgia Meloni.

 

In a seeming recognition that the continent’s political complexion is changing, the European Commission president, Ursula von der Leyen, said in Spain this past week that the European Union needed to deliver tangible results in order to counter “extremist” forces.

In Spain, where the conservative Popular Party has a good chance of finishing first in the coming election, Esteban González Pons, a leading party official, said that bringing hard-right parties, like Vox, into government was a way to neutralize them. But he acknowledged that strategy carried risks.

“First, the bad scenario: We can legitimize Vox,” he said.

“Then, there is a second chance: We can normalize Vox,” he said, adding that if they governed well, “Vox will be another party, a conservative party inside of the system.”

For now, the situation is fluid and there are indications that Mr. Sánchez and his leftist allies are gaining support. Vox also appears to be losing ground as the Sánchez campaign and well-known artists and liberals throughout Spain have focused on the threat of conservatives bringing Vox into the government.

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A Pride flag hanging from a balcony railing.
A Pride flag hanging on a house in Náquera, Spain.Credit…Samuel Aranda for The New York Times
A Pride flag hanging from a balcony railing.

 

Spain seemed in recent years to be a bright spot for liberals. Under Mr. Sánchez, Spain has kept inflation low, reduced tensions with separatists in Catalonia, and increased the growth rate, pensions and the minimum wage. He is also generally popular in the European Union.

But the alliance between Mr. Sánchez and deeply polarizing separatists and far-left forces has fed resentment among many voters.

Mr. González Pons, a leading official of the Popular Party, does not think that worries about Vox possibly joining forces with his conservatives are entirely off base. “We are pro-European and Vox is not,” he said, adding that Vox “would prefer something like a general Brexit, for all the countries to recover their own sovereignty.” He said Vox had views on gay rights and violence against women that “are red lines for us.”

Those lines started to show as the new leaders of Elche sat on leather armchairs in the mayor’s office last week and sought to put up a united front. Mr. Ruz, the mayor from the conservative Popular Party, and his deputy from Vox, Ms. Rodil, took turns bashing the prime minister. But when pressed, the mayor acknowledged that his party recognized gay marriage, and that he was queasier about hard-right parties like Alternative for Germany than his “partner.” Still, he said, the Popular Party and Vox had similar voters, just different approaches to “implementation.”

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People waving flags and cheering outside.
Far-right supporters of Spain’s Vox party during a recent rally in Barcelona.Credit…Samuel Aranda for The New York Times
People waving flags and cheering outside.

 

“Can I say something regarding that?” Ms. Rodil said with a coy smile. “We have a stance that is maybe a little firmer.” Vox, she said, believes in the “sovereignty of nations” and would like to make it more difficult for women to have abortions, positions that she said some people in the mayor’s party “do not defend.” She said the “ambiguous” stances of Alberto Núñez Feijóo, the Popular Party’s leader, were “worrying.”

Many, instead, are worried about Vox.

“We have seen populism, supported by the center-right, grow in small towns,” said Carlos González Serna, the former socialist mayor of Elche, who lost the election. He said that instead of cordoning off the extreme right, mainstream conservatives had given it an “umbilical cord” of legitimacy.

The leader of Vox, Santiago Abascal, split from the Popular Party amid a slush-fund scandal in 2013. The party’s popularity grew in 2018 as more migrants arrived by sea to Spain than to any other European country. The nationalist Vox was also well positioned to exploit a backlash to the Catalonian independence movement.

But Vox has also found support among Spaniards unhappy with their country’s progressive shift on climate change and social issues, including gay rights and feminism. Their campaign billboards have included candidates throwing L.G.B.T.Q., feminist and other symbols in the trash. In the town of Náquera, near Elche, the newly elected mayor from the Vox party has ordered the removal of Pride flags from municipal buildings.

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A group of young men on a rooftop in the morning sun.
Migrants having breakfast on a rooftop in 2018 in Barcelona. That year, more migrants arrived by sea to Spain than to any other European country.Credit…Samuel Aranda for The New York Times
A group of young men on a rooftop in the morning sun.

 

One resident, a 45-year-old truck driver named Maximo Ibañez, said he voted for Vox because the party spoke clearly, but also because he feels that Spain’s pioneering laws to explicitly protect women against gender-based violence — complete with special courts and tougher sentences — discriminate against men.

“It’s women who have the right to presumption of innocence here,” he said.

One of Vox’s regional leaders has joked that some women were too unattractive to be gang raped, and another said that “women are more belligerent because they don’t have penises.”

Ms. Rodil, the new deputy mayor of Elche with Vox, said that her party had no quarrel with women, just with the notion that domestic violence should be seen through gender-based ideology, and that a man, “just for being a man, is bad, that he has a gene that makes him violent.”

She argued that Mr. Sánchez’s government had endangered women with botched legislation that had the potential to let sex offenders out of jail. Mr. Sánchez has apologized for the inadvertent effects of the so-called yes-is-yes law, which was intended to categorize all non-consensual sex as rape, but which, through changes to sentencing requirements, has risked reducing jail time or setting free potentially hundreds of sex offenders.

As many in Europe say the time has come to start taking right-wing parties more seriously, some voters in Elche regretted not having taken Vox seriously enough.

“I didn’t think that they were going to form a government and the fact that they have has surprised me,” Isabel Chinchilla, 67, said in a plaza that features three statues of the Virgin Mary. “I will vote in the national elections so that this doesn’t happen again, because they are very reactionary in their vision of society.”

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Two people sitting at an outdoor bar table and two people at a window.
Maximo Ibañez, right, a truck driver who said he voted for Vox, at a bar in Náquera, Spain.Credit…Samuel Aranda for The New York Times
Two people sitting at an outdoor bar table and two people at a window.

 

Rachel Chaundler contributed reporting from Elche.

Jason Horowitz is the Rome bureau chief, covering Italy, the Vatican, Greece and other parts of Southern Europe. He previously covered the 2016 presidential campaign, the Obama administration and Congress, with an emphasis on political profiles and features. More about Jason Horowitz

opinion, Perspectives 0 comments on SUDAN LOW-INTENSITY CONFLICT AND ITS IMPACT ON NORTH AFRICA AND SAHEL REGION

SUDAN LOW-INTENSITY CONFLICT AND ITS IMPACT ON NORTH AFRICA AND SAHEL REGION

NESA Center Alumni Publication
Dr. Arslan Chikhaoui (Chairman of NSV Consultancy & Studies Center and Advisory Board Member of the Defense and Security Forum)
24 May 2023

The 32nd Arab Summit in Jeddah addressed the issue of low-intensity conflict in Sudan. Indeed, given the position of Sudan, the crisis in this country has undoubtedly had an impact in the sub-Saharan region, including in the Sahel and in the countries of North Africa. These countries are not immune to the ongoing low-intensity conflict, largely because of the common Arab cultural and political ties that unite them. The danger now posed by the potential repercussions of the Sudanese crisis on North African countries is a source of major concern for other Arab countries.

The first concern is that the situation in Libya is one of the most worrying, given that the country is mired in a power struggle between East and West and that the warring factions have complex links with the parties involved in the Sudanese crisis. This could undermine any future inclusive reconciliation in Libya.

The second concern is the potential impact on the political situation in Chad and the security and humanitarian problems that could arise for other countries in the Sahel, including Mali and Niger. The Chadian government is perhaps rightly concerned that opposition armed forces in the country may seek some form of alliance with Sudan’s rapid support forces. The growing political vulnerability of Chad and Libya could lead to foreign military intervention, which would create other problems. Such unrest is fertile ground for Violent Extremist Organizations (VEOs), allowing them to move freely throughout the ungoverned Sahel region. These groups still feel empowered by the 2011 protests and the resulting lack of security across the region. It is perhaps obvious to point out that the relatively improved security in the region following the so-called “Arab Spring” protests has led to a consequent decline in the activities of various terrorist groups.

The Sudanese crisis could also prompt terrorist groups to intensify their activities in the border regions between Tunisia and Algeria. These groups are entrenched in the Chaambi Mountains in Tunisia and all along the Algerian-Libyan border areas to northern Mali. In such circumstances, the likelihood of an attack similar to the one in 2013, which targeted a gas facility in the Algerian region of Tiguentourine, increases. For the record, the attackers’ starting point for this operation was the border area between Niger and Libya. The terrorist group cites France’s “Serval” military intervention in Mali as justification for that malicious action. Algeria rightly recalls that a solution to the Sudanese crisis had to be found by avoiding any foreign military intervention, which it considers to be one of the main reasons for the intensification of the various crises in the region.

In addition, North African countries fear the security threats posed by illegal immigration, asylum seekers, narcotic trafficking, and organized crime in all its forms since these countries are located on the southern shore of the Mediterranean, from which boats carry illegal migrants to Europe. In recent years, the number of asylum seekers and illegal immigrants heading to North African countries has increased due to deteriorating conditions in the Sahel countries. While the countries of North Africa were previously only transit points, they have now become a main hub for those seeking to immigrate illegally to Europe, seen as an “Eldorado.” This has caused several internal problems in these countries. The latest concerns accusations of racism leveled against Tunisia because of the way it treats African refugees and immigrants. This even prompted the Tunisian presidency to publish details to reject such accusations.

The third concern is that structural problems in the countries of the Sahel could hamper their ability to prevent the Sudanese crisis from spreading in their countries. If this conflict evolves, it could plunge the entire region into the conditions that prevailed before the first wave of what is being called the “Arab Spring.” It is undeniable that these countries are stepping up their efforts to maintain their security and stability, in addition to contributing to international efforts aimed at achieving a peaceful resolution to the low-intensity conflict in Sudan.

Last but not least, the fourth concern is that the low-intensity conflict in Sudan, which threatens to blow up the ungoverned Sahel zone, could be a justification for maintaining the Status Quo of the Western Sahara issue.

Interviews, News, opinion 0 comments on Libya watchers see signs of progress toward reconciliation

Libya watchers see signs of progress toward reconciliation

 

The North African country was plunged into bloody violence following Muammar Gaddafi’s ouster
UN official hopes for an agreement ‘by mid-June’ to hold elections before the end of this year
TRIPOLI: Oil-rich but war-scarred Libya has for years been ruled by two rival governments, but now some analysts see faint signs of progress toward reconciliation between them.
They point to discord within one of the camps, based in the east and backed by military strongman Khalifa Haftar, where the parliament last week suspended its former premier Fathi Bashagha.
Paradoxically, the observers say, Bashaga’s political demise could signal that the Haftar camp is moving toward rapprochement with the internationally recognized government in the capital Tripoli.
Some observers even suggest this could aid United Nations-led efforts urging new elections this year in the country that has been torn by bloody chaos since the 2011 overthrow of dictator Muammar Gaddafi.
The political rupture in the east has reversed the fortunes of Bashagha, who a year ago launched an attack on Tripoli that was repelled after a day of deadly street fighting.
Bashagha was suspended on May 16 by the eastern-based parliament, which also announced an investigation against him for unspecified reasons.
The move against Bashagha “sealed the end of the political life of this former strongman,” said analyst Hasni Abidi of the Geneva-based Institute for Arab and Mediterranean Cultures.
His “humiliating departure … reflects the differences in the eastern camp, in particular between the Haftar clan represented by his children and the parliament,” Abidi said.
Tripoli-based interim Prime Minister Abdulhamid Dbeibah has meanwhile used the “paralysis of the eastern government to consolidate his grip on political and economic life in Libya,” he said.
The North African country was plunged into more than a decade of bloody violence following Gaddafi’s ouster in a NATO-backed popular uprising in which the veteran dictator was killed.
The ensuing chaos drew in warlords, militants and foreign mercenaries and claimed countless lives while leaving the country awash with guns.
Haftar, a Gaddafi-era soldier turned exile, and since backed by Egypt and other foreign powers, launched an assault on Tripoli in 2019 that left thousands more dead but ultimately failed.
The warring parties reached a formal cease-fire in October 2020.
Since then, the United Nations has resumed its efforts for new elections, to bring stability to the troubled country, but these have been repeatedly delayed.
Bashaga, from the port city of Misrata and formerly a political heavyweight in the western camp, had sought Haftar’s support in late 2021, vowing to work for “national reconciliation.”
Bashagha’s suspension comes ahead of a mid-June deadline declared by the United Nations for the rival political forces to agree on a framework to hold elections before the end of the year.
Bashagha “always had an expiry date,” said Emadeddin Badi of the Global Initiative Against Transnational Organized Crime, a Switzerland-based research body.
“His usefulness ended the day he lost the possibility of establishing himself in Tripoli,” the analyst said.
Libyan media have meanwhile reported that talks have been held between representatives of Haftar and Dbeibah.
Dbeibah’s nephew and one of Haftar’s sons “have been in almost continuous talks for months,” researcher Jalel Harchaoui said.
“The desire of these two Libyan personalities to accommodate one another is one of the reasons for Bashagha’s fall,” he said.
Badi said Haftar had offered to suspend Bashagha, a move that had the “blessing” of Egypt.
The head of the UN Support Mission in Libya, Abdoulaye Bathily, has said he hopes for an agreement “by mid-June” to hold elections before the end of this year.
He told the UN Security Council last month that “intensive consultations have taken place among security actors” and said “there has been a new dynamic in Libya.”
Libyan political analyst Abdallah Al-Rayes said the rival camps’ new understandings are the culmination of “discreet negotiations in Cairo” with a view to “forming a new coalition government.”
“This is a step that precedes any agreement on the polls,” he added.
Harchaoui, however, was less optimistic and said “the elites already well in place today … have absolutely no intention of leaving power in order to allow credible and authentic elections.”

Interviews, News, opinion 0 comments on Exclusive: Tons of uranium missing from Libyan site, IAEA tells member states

Exclusive: Tons of uranium missing from Libyan site, IAEA tells member states

VIENNA, March 15 (Reuters) – U.N. nuclear watchdog inspectors have found that roughly 2.5 tons of natural uranium have gone missing from a Libyan site that is not under government control, the watchdog told member states in a statement on Wednesday seen by Reuters.

The finding is the result of an inspection originally planned for last year that “had to be postponed because of the security situation in the region” and was finally carried out on Tuesday, according to the confidential statement by International Atomic Energy Agency chief Rafael Grossi.

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IAEA inspectors “found that 10 drums containing approximately 2.5 tons of natural uranium in the form of UOC (uranium ore concentrate) previously declared by (Libya) … as being stored at that location were not present at the location,” the one-page statement said.

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The agency would carry out “further activities” to determine the circumstances of the uranium’s removal from the site, which it did not name, and where it is now, the statement added.

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“The loss of knowledge about the present location of nuclear material may present a radiological risk, as well as nuclear security concerns,” it said, adding that reaching the site required “complex logistics”.

In 2003 Libya under then-leader Muammar Gaddafi renounced its nuclear weapons programme, which had obtained centrifuges that can enrich uranium as well as design information for a nuclear bomb, though it made little progress towards a bomb.

Libya has had little peace since a 2011 NATO-backed uprising ousted Gaddafi. Since 2014, political control has been split between rival eastern and western factions, with the last major bout of conflict ending in 2020.

Libya’s interim government, put in place in early 2021 through a U.N.-backed peace plan, was only supposed to last until an election scheduled for December of that year that has still not been held, and its legitimacy is now also disputed.

Interviews, News, opinion 0 comments on Saudi Arabia and Iran Agree to Restore Ties, in Talks Hosted by China .. By By Vivian Nereim

Saudi Arabia and Iran Agree to Restore Ties, in Talks Hosted by China .. By By Vivian Nereim

RIYADH, Saudi Arabia — After years of open hostility and proxy conflicts across the Middle East, Saudi Arabia and Iran have agreed to re-establish diplomatic ties, they announced on Friday, in a significant pivot for the two regional rivals that was facilitated by China.

China hosted the talks that led to the breakthrough, highlighting Beijing’s growing role as a global economic and political power, and counterbalance to Washington — particularly in the Middle East, a region that was long shaped by the military and diplomatic involvement of the United States.

Seven years after cutting formal ties, Iran and Saudi Arabia will reopen embassies in each other’s countries within two months, and confirmed their “respect for the sovereignty of states and noninterference in their internal affairs,” they said in a joint statement published by the official Saudi Press Agency. Iran’s state news media also announced the deal.

The two countries agreed to reactivate a lapsed security cooperation pact — a shift that comes after years of Iranian-backed militias in Yemen targeting Saudi Arabia with missile and drone attacks — as well as older trade, investment and cultural accords.

Whether the shift leads to a deep or lasting détente between governments that have long been in conflict remains unclear, but there have been signs that both nations wanted to find a way to step back from confrontation. Saudi and Iranian officials had engaged in several rounds of talks over the past two years, including in Iraq and Oman, but without significant steps forward.

For the United States, the agreement signals that it cannot take for granted the pre-eminent influence it once wielded in Saudi Arabia — an ally that is charting a more independent diplomatic course — and elsewhere, as China, a rising superpower, builds trade and diplomatic relations around the world.

While Washington views Iran as an adversary, Beijing has cultivated close ties to both Iran and Saudi Arabia, and unlike U.S. officials, it does not chastise them about human rights. Iran’s president, Ebrahim Raisi, visited Beijing last month, and China’s top leader, Xi Jinping, visited Riyadh, the Saudi capital, in December. Mr. Xi’s state visit was celebrated by Saudi officials, who often complain that their American allies are too critical, and are no longer reliable security partners.

John Kirby, a spokesman for the National Security Council, rejected the notion that the United States had left a void in Middle East affairs, now being filled by China. “I would stridently push back on this idea that we are stepping back in the Middle East,” he said, adding that Saudi Arabia had kept the United States informed of the talks with Iran.

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“We support any effort there to de-escalate tensions in the region,” Mr. Kirby said.

China’s most senior foreign policy official, Wang Yi, indicated on Friday in a statement on the Chinese foreign ministry website that Beijing had played an instrumental role in the resumption of diplomatic ties.

“This is a victory for the dialogue, a victory for peace, and is major positive news for the world which is currently so turbulent and restive, and it sends a clear signal,” he said.

Mohammed Alyahya, a Saudi fellow at the Belfer Center for Science and International Affairs at Harvard, said the agreement was a “reflection of China’s growing strategic clout in the region — the fact that it has a lot of leverage over the Iranians, the fact it has very deep and important economic relations with the Saudis.” He added: “There is a strategic void in the region, and the Chinese seem to have figured out how to capitalize on that.”

After years of tensions, Saudi Arabia cut ties with Iran completely in 2016, when protesters stormed the kingdom’s embassy in Tehran after Saudi Arabia’s execution of a prominent Saudi Shiite cleric.

The rivalry between the two Islamic nations, which are less than 150 miles away from each other across the Persian Gulf, has long shaped politics and trade in the Middle East. It has a sectarian dimension — Saudi Arabia’s monarchy and a majority of its populace are Sunni, while Iran’s people are overwhelmingly Shiite — but has predominantly played out via proxy conflicts in Yemen, Iraq and Lebanon, where Iran has supported militias that Saudi officials say have destabilized the region.

Tensions hit a peak in 2019, when a missile and drone assault on a key Saudi oil installation briefly disrupted half of the kingdom’s crude production; the Iran-backed Houthi movement in Yemen claimed responsibility, but U.S. officials said that Iran had directly overseen the attack.

Image

A satellite image of smoke rising from a critical oil plant in Abqaiq, Saudi Arabia, in 2019.
Credit…Planet Labs Inc, via Associated Press
A satellite image of smoke rising from a critical oil plant in Abqaiq, Saudi Arabia, in 2019.

In Yemen, a Saudi-led coalition has been at war with the Houthis since 2015. Saudi officials have also repeatedly expressed fear over Iran’s nuclear program, saying that they would be the foremost target for any attack by the Islamic Republic.

China wants stability in the region, with more than 40 percent of its crude oil imports coming from the Gulf, said Jonathan Fulton, a nonresident senior fellow for Middle East programs at the Atlantic Council.

“Beijing has adopted a smart approach using its strategic partnership diplomacy, building diplomatic capital on both sides of the Gulf,” he said. “Unlike the United States, which balances one side against the other, and is therefore limited in its diplomatic capacity.”

Ali Shamkhani, the head of Iran’s Supreme National Security Council, told Iran’s NourNews Agency that President Raisi’s visit to China in February had helped create the opportunity for the negotiations to move forward.

Mr. Shamkhani described the talks as “unequivocal, transparent, comprehensive and constructive.” He said he was looking forward to relations between Iran and Saudi Arabia that foster “the security and stability of the region.”

Image

Xi Jinping, president of China, with President Ebrahim Raisi of Iran in Beijing last month, in a photo released by the Chinese state news media.
Credit…Yan Yan/Xinhua, via Associated Press
Xi Jinping, president of China, with President Ebrahim Raisi of Iran in Beijing last month, in a photo released by the Chinese state news media.

For Iran, mending ties with a regional enemy would be a welcome relief after months of internal turmoil marked by antigovernment protests that Iranian officials have blamed in part on Saudi Arabia. The Iranian government spokesman, Ali Bahadori Jahromi, tweeted that “the historic agreement of Saudi-Iran negotiated in China and led entirely by Asian countries will change the dynamics of the region.”

The Israeli foreign ministry declined to immediately comment. But the news complicates the Israeli assumption that shared fears of a nuclear Iran would help Israel forge a formal relationship with Saudi Arabia. Benjamin Netanyahu, the Israeli prime minister, has repeatedly stated in recent months that he hoped to seal diplomatic ties between Israel and Saudi Arabia for the first time.

Saudi Arabia has pressed the United States to lower restrictions on selling it arms, and to help it build a civilian nuclear program, as its price to normalize relations with Israel, according to people familiar with the exchanges.

The agreement comes as China has been trying to play a more active role in global governance by releasing a political settlement plan for the war in Ukraine and updating what it calls the Global Security Initiative, a bid to supplant Washington’s dominant role in addressing the world’s conflicts and crises.

Political analysts took mixed views of the implications for the United States.

Mark Dubowitz, the chief executive of the Foundation for Defense of Democracies, a Washington-based research institute, described the renewed Iran-Saudi ties resulting from Chinese mediation as “a lose, lose, lose for American interests.”

He added: “It demonstrates that the Saudis don’t trust Washington to have their back, that Iran sees an opportunity to peel away American allies to end its international isolation and that China is becoming the major-domo of Middle Eastern power politics.”

Image

President Biden meeting with Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman in Saudi Arabia last year.
Credit…Doug Mills/The New York Times
President Biden meeting with Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman in Saudi Arabia last year.

But Trita Parsi, an executive vice president of the Quincy Institute, a Washington research group that advocates U.S. restraint overseas, called the agreement “good news for the Middle East, since Saudi-Iranian tensions have been a driver of instability in the region.”

Saudi officials are not looking to replace the United States with China, said Yasmine Farouk, a nonresident scholar at the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace, a Washington research group.

When it comes to defense and security, “Riyadh still thinks in English,” she said. But after years of feeling that the United States has become a less reliable ally, the Saudis are expanding their alliances wherever they can.

Reporting was contributed by Keith Bradsher, Patrick Kingsley, David Pierson, Christopher Buckley, Michael Crowley, Farnaz Fassihi, Zolan Kanno-Youngs and Leily Nikounazar.